This module develops understanding and appreciation of uncertainties in engineering on a basic level. It involves the qualitative analys is of the uncertainty and risks in engineering systems in view of engineering decision making under uncertainty. Particular focus is on the quantification of the uncertainty, reliability analyis and simulation techniques as well associated concepts for code-compliant verification and design. The methods shown in the module have a general applicability, which is demonstrated by examples and practical applications.

(LO1) Students will understand the importance of Risk Analysis in Engineering

(LO2) Students will learn how to quantify the effect of uncertainty by means analytical and simulation methods.

(LO3) Student will understand how risk and uncertainty can be managed effectively

(LO4) Students will acquire knowledge of the theoretical elements of risk and uncertainty

(S1) Problem solving skills

(S2) Numeracy

(S3) IT skills

(S4) Communication skills

Introduction to Risk Definition of Risk Effect of Uncertainties Risk communication Challenges in Engineering Design under uncertainty Qualitative Risk Assessment H azard and operability study Failure mode effects and criticality analysis Event Tree and Fault Tree ALARP approach Uncertainty Modelling for Engineers: Event structures, probability structures and basic operations  Random variables and common distributions for random variables in engineering Expected values and moments of distribution Statistical inference Bayesian Approaches ProbabilisticMethods for Engineering Applications Analytical and approximate approaches Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation with application Basic concepts of scientific computing Sampling for different distribution  Variance reduction methods Matlab implementation Engineering applications from different fields

Teaching Method 1 - Lecture
Description: Standard lectures
Attendance Recorded: Yes
Notes: 2 hours per week

Teaching Method 2 - Tutorial
Description: Solution of simple examples
Attendance Recorded: Yes

Teaching Method 3 - Other
Description: Computer Lab - Implementation of simple computer codes for Monte Carlo simulation
Attendance Recorded: Yes

Teaching Method 4 - Seminar
Description: Risk Analysis and Uncertainty quantification methods in Industry
Attendance Recorded: Not yet decided